Robert Kelly

Seattle Metro 2011 4Q Review

Robert Kelly — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 00:59:31 +0000

West Seattle Market Report for December

Robert Kelly — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:04:36 +0000

Dear Robert, Enclosed is your monthly Facts and Trends Report for your area. My goal is to keep you informed and educated about the market, and by using these tools we can track the housing statistics in your market. Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or comments about the data. Graph 1: Supply and Demand There are 3 pieces of information in the Supply & Demand chart. The first is the supply of homes for sale over a thirteen-month period. This is shown with GREEN bars (SUPPLY). The second is the number of homes sold in BLUE bars (SOLD). The third is the number of pending sales , shown as a RED line (UNDER CONTRACT). This chart allows you to compare the most recent 3-months activity with the same period one-year ago. The Supply & Demand chart is utilized to help determine who is in the driver’s seat: the buyer, the seller or neither party. This is commonly referred to as a buyer’s, seller’s or neutral market. The type of market is determined by the supply of homes -in months. This is calculated by dividing the # of homes for sale by the # of homes that are sold. Graph 2: Days on Market The BLUE line denotes the average percentage of the current listing price the Seller sold his or her home for. We call this “sold to list price percentage”. In other words, IF IT WERE AT 99%, the average seller has only had to discount their listing price by 1% to attract a buyer. The listing price refers only to those homes that are closed, not average list price for homes still for sale (pending). The PINK bars show how long the property has been on the market before it received an acceptable offer. We call this “days on market”. Days on market is based on homes that have closed already, not homes that are still pending. We do not count all previous listing periods because they did not result in a sale. Also we do not count the time in escrow. Graph 3: Average Price The GREEN line denotes the average price for all homes for sale in a given month and a given area The RED line denotes the average price for all homes that sold (closed) in the same month and area. Graph 4: Months of Inventory The BLACK graph line denotes the months of inventory that were available in a given month/year in your area (zip code specific). The way that “Months of Inventory” is determined, is by taking the number of homes that were for sale in a given month and comparing it to the number of homes that accepted an offer in the same month.

Facts and TrendsTM Summary

Location:	West Seattle (140)
Price Range:	$0 – No Limit
SQFT Range:	0 – No Limit
Property Types:	Single Family Homes – All Property Statuses – All Properties
Published:	December 2011*

Number of Homes For Sale vs. Sold vs. Pended (Nov. 2010 – Nov. 2011)

	Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago
	Nov. 11	Oct. 11	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change
For Sale	336	384	-12.5%	336	496	-32.3%	336	496	-32.3%
Sold	82	98	-16.3%	82	87	-5.7%	82	87	-5.7%
Pended	79	114	-30.7%	79	66	19.7%	79	66	19.7%

Avg CDOM & SP/Orig LP % (Nov. 2010 – Nov. 2011)

	Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago
	Nov. 11	Oct. 11	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change
Avg CDOM	85	76	11.8%	85	81	4.9%	85	81	4.9%
Sold/Orig LP Diff. %	92	92	0%	92	90	2.2%	92	90	2.2%

Average Price of For Sale and Sold (Nov. 2010 – Nov. 2011)

	Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago
	Nov. 11	Oct. 11	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change
Avg. Active Price	403	423	-4.7%	403	420	-4%	403	420	-4%
Avg. Sold Price	321	355	-9.6%	321	372	-13.7%	321	372	-13.7%

Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales (Nov. 2010 – Nov. 2011)

	Curnt vs. Prev Month			Curnt vs. Prev 13 Months			Curnt vs. Same Month 1 Yr Ago
	Nov. 11	Oct. 11	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change	Nov. 11	Nov. 10	% Change
Months of Inventory (Closed Sales)	4	4	4.6%	4	6	-28.1%	4	6	-28.1%

Seattle home prices drop in latest report

Robert Kelly — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:02:42 +0000

Seattle home prices drop in latest report

Puget Sound Business Journal

Date: Wednesday, November 30, 2011, 6:31am PST

Seattle home prices are down 6.5 percent from a year ago – worse than average for the U.S., according to the S&P/Case-Schiller Home Price Indices.

Nationally, home prices fell an average of 3.6 percent in 20 cities tracked by the Case-Shiller Index. In Seattle, prices fell on a month-to-month basis as well. They dropped 1.1 percent between August and September, compared with 0.3 percent between July and August.

Projections for 2012 by Lawrence Yun, chief economist of NAR

Robert Kelly — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:01:31 +0000

Housing News from the Northwest REporter (January 2012)
Although the housing market struggled to maintain an even footing in 2011, gradual improvement is expected in 2012 and beyond, according to projections by Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®. “Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back home buyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently,” Yun said. “Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly stimulate the market when conditions improve. “Yun projects growth in Gross Domestic Product to be 1.8 percent this year, then rising moderately at a rate of 2.2 percent in 2012. With job growth of 1.7 to 2.2 million next year, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.7 percent by the second half of 2012. Mortgage interest rates should gradually rise from recent record lows and reach 4.5 percent by the middle of 2012.

West Seattle School Boundary — Sealth/Denny

Robert Kelly — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 17:39:30 +0000

West Seattle School Boundary — West Seattle/Madison Section

Robert Kelly — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 17:38:26 +0000

Impacting Credit Scores

Robert Kelly — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 17:21:32 +0000

How much impact does a short sale have on FICO® Scores? How about a foreclosure?

The FICO study simulated various types of mortgage delinquencies on three representative credit bureau profiles of consumers scoring 680 and 780. All consumers had an active currently-paid-as-agreed mortgage on file.

Results are shown below. The first chart shows the impact on the score for each stage of delinquency, and the second shows how long it takes the score to fully “recover” after the fact.

Distressed Properties 3Q 2011 Graph

Robert Kelly — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 16:13:50 +0000

Real Home Prices: A metro area look

Robert Kelly — Mon, 17 Oct 2011 17:34:01 +0000

Real Home Prices: A Metro-Area Look

In our latest Housing Chartbook, we mentioned that a definitive bottom for home prices is within sight.1 Even though nominal nationwide home prices are still about 15 percent above their long- run trend, on a trough-to-trough basis, home prices have now fallen back down to trend in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms (Figure 1 and Figure 2).2 Real home prices could certainly break through their long-run trend in the coming months—as distressed sales continue to account for a large share of total existing home sales—but any further price depreciation from current price levels will likely be relatively modest.

Click HERE for full article

National Market Trend Report

Robert Kelly — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 18:21:40 +0000

Helping you see risk and avoid it…

The economy is still growing, but it has slowed sharply and confidence (both consumer and business) is in the dumps. Rising concerns about a debt default in the European Union (or even a breakup of the E.U.), the difficulties in getting a U.S. federal budget agreement and debt ceiling extension last month (and the resulting downgrade of U.S. government debt by ratings firm Standard & Poor’s), and the inability of the economy to catch fire more than two years after the end of the Great Recession have combined to reduce risk-taking – and thus have slowed economic momentum.
• Although the economy should continue to grow, the current slow pace of expansion and the chances of a policy error in the E.U. that would rock worldwide financial markets have certainly increased the odds of a near-term downturn. A quarter ago, those odds would have been under 10 percent – now they’re between 30-40 percent. The unprecedented nature of the fiscal and financial problems facing the E.U. and their unknown (and unknowable) impacts on the world and U.S. economies add to the weight of uncertainty – and are helping to hold the economy back.

Click here for full report

Robert Kelly WRE BROKER robertkelly@windermere.com 206-890-1796